Tomorrow
could be an anything-can-happen kinda NFL experience. Or will the chalk quietly
win out? On the other hand, can you call it “chalk” when a home team is a
4-point underdog? If I’m the Falcons, I’m at least somewhat insulted. Good
bulletin-board material, though, I suppose.
We’re 6-2
so far this postseason, and Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers are my equals:
Like me, they’ll be at home watching the action. Savor it—because a great Super
Bowl is never promised.
San
Francisco (12-4-1) at Atlanta (14-3)
Yup, the
Falcons enter practically the biggest game in their franchise’s un-storied history
as home underdogs. I can’t imagine when, since the merger, a playoff team with
the very best record in pro football has ever been getting points on their home
turf. It’s inexplicable. So let’s try to “explic” it:
For all
their success, the Falcons just look vulnerable. They needed a near-miracle to
oust the Seahawks last week, after blowing a considerable lead and, frankly,
looking less worthy than their opponent. Yeah, being lucky is sometimes better
than being good, but how long do you want to rely on that truism?
The
Falcons are good, but they don’t read as dominant. They got a solid (and
overdue) performance out of RB Michael Turner vs. the ‘Hawks, but can he repeat
vs. the tough 49ers defense?
The
unfortunately named “Matty Ice” seems like a softie where NFL elite QBs are
concerned. Yes, he has talent—no one disputes that—and good weapons at his
disposal. Moxie? In the BIG game?? I dunno—and clearly the handicappers are
skittish.
On the
Niners side, a late-breaking legal distraction regarding talented wide receiver
Michael Crabtree can possibly be put off to the side for now. Sexual assault
allegations? Sheesh…where does this stuff end?
Back to
business: The Niners looked strong against the Packers, and as long as Wonder
QB Colin Kaepernick keeps playing as he has, that balanced yet shifty offense
should cause the Falcons some fits.
I don’t
know about that point spread. My fingers are crossed, my money stays in my
pockets, and I'm assuming there's no "Crabtree Effect."
Prediction:
49ers 24, Falcons 20
Baltimore
(12-6) at New England (13-4)
In the AFC
tilt, the Ravens are being gifted 8 points by the boys in Vegas. Seems a tad
generous, unless the Ravens just totally lose all that heart they exhibited in
besting the Broncos in Denver. Of course, the Broncos blew it. (They seemed less
able to deal with the cold, ironically.)
Is Flacco
for real? He seemed as lucky as the Falcons to me. Like Matt Ryan, he does have
some weapons, but it’s a matter of whether everyone shows up. As for the Ravens
defense, they hustled and played hard in Denver—then gave up 35 points, 14
against the special teams. This team lost six games in 2012, and there are
reasons why. Call them inconsistent.
The
Patriots look like the same old, machinelike Patriots. The emergence of Shane
Vereen as an offensive threat is pure Belichick gold, and proof again that a
running GAME is more important than a running BACK. Tom Brady will be great so
long as he is upright, and the loss of Gronk shouldn’t matter too much.
The
defenses will have more to say about this outcome than the offenses, though.
Can the Ravens muster one more big physical effort and rattle Brady’s cage?
Will the Pats’ D always be alert to Ray Rice’s ground explosions or the size
and speed of the Ravens wideouts?
The more I
think about this, the closer it gets.
Prediction:
Patriots 27, Ravens 24
No comments:
Post a Comment