Thursday, October 01, 2015

                         MARTY'S RACE-A-DAY

Santa Anita--Oct. 1, 2015
RACE 5--Maiden Special Weight--$52,000 Purse--Mile and 1/8 on turf--3-yr.-olds

Big Discovery has six prior races, all routes, none shorter than a mile, and the first four were on turf. Interesting horse. BD has never finished out of the money. He starts every race lagging toward the back, then responds (under various jockeys) almost like clockwork mid-race, steadily gaining on the leaders and then pushing hard to the finish. Yet he hasn't ever completely closed the deal. Mike Smith rides and maybe the slightly longer distance will pay off for this on-the-verge closer. 5-2 ML.

Broken Up has only two races under his cinch. His latest, a 1-1/16er on the turf at GGF, presented us with a patient Hound with a big urgent finishing kick that almost nipped the co-favorite Saxon Lord at the wire—and seemed to have more in the tank. Mandella trainee strives to go 1/16 further for the win with Gary Stevens aboard. Looks to have the talent, but maybe too early to trust? 3-1 ML.

Boone Docks has tried it every which way for the past year--sprints, routes, dirt, turf, East Coast, West Coast, as Hound, as Rabbit—and has finished ITM but once in 6 tries (a 3rd at Saratoga in Aug. 2015). In strictly relative terms, he's showing improvement, and he gets some needed consistency here with Santiago Gonzalez riding for the third time in 2015, but Boone Docks' penchant for getting lost in the shuffle looms a liability, especially at this distance. 4-1 ML. 

Lightly raced Carla Gaines trainee Fishel scratched out of his last scheduled race, 8/30 at Del Mar. Only previous two starts (June/July) have yielded inconclusive results, a 10th place at SA and then a better 4th at Del Mar. James Graham rides Fishel for the first time. 5-1 ML.

Paythebank's most recent races include a late-running 5th at Del Mar (8/22), a 3rd place in the slop at Del Mar (7/19), a 7th at SA (6/28) and a close 2nd at SA (5/7). The Kruljac trainee has been out and about since July 2014, through 14 scheduled starts, all surfaces and distances, a few scratches, a 4-5 month mid-career layoff, and a passel of jockeys, including Talamo, Trujillo, Garcia, TBaze and more recently Nakatani, who rides today. Nary a win through all those variables, though the horse has shown some talent and hustle on a few occasions. There IS a scenario where he might break through, wherein the reliable-looking favorite simply misfires and the second favorite proves too green. There WILL be a winner in this race, though, and Paythebank has as good a shot as any of the lesser wannabes. 6-1 ML.

Y's Passion is a virtual newbie with only two races, both sprints on the dirt at Del Mar. Drayden Van Dyke returns to ride the Patrick Gallagher colt, and with no experience on the turf, or at longer distances, he can only be a speculative choice. Yet his most recent 9/7 effort, at 7 furlongs, showed us a horse able to come gamely up to 4th from faraway at the back of a 9-horse field. It may mean nothing here, but the visual was impressive. 10-1 ML.

Radio Silent finished 7th in his only start, on 9/7. Alonso Quinonez will again take him out for a spin. 10-1 ML.

Based on his June 5 performance at GGF—a valiant 3rd, in a 1-and-1/16-mile route on turf—Junior G  Man looks like a hustler. Prior to that, in April, on the same track/distance, he scored a game 2nd place. So he's a competitor. But his one race since being acquired by Art Sherman, on Aug. 22 at Del Mar on the turf at the same distance, was a lackluster 7th place out of 9. Ty Kennedy is the jockey. Inscrutable horse here, but maybe worth a flyer as the longest shot in this race. 12-1 ML.

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